18 Feb 2016
A glimmer of light for oil? - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ explained that hope remains that a curb on production and oil pact (the first in 15 years) will help improve the supply–demand balance situation in the oil market, with oil prices up overnight.
Key Quotes:
"There are sticking points: A curb is not a cut. Iran – who while supporting the deal in spirit, have little incentive to freeze its production at levels when it was under sanctions. That’s understandable."
"You can see elements of the stance couched in game theory, with a key lesson from the Prisoners’ Dilemma that self-interest will override group interest. We await Iran’s “special terms”.
And in a world where the supply-demand balance is being impacted by structural dynamics (think how technology is altering demand) as well as cyclical ones (which such pacts can respond to), we wonder how far low cost producers will go to support the higher cost ones. There are market share movements to be made. So we are not getting overly excited about oil prices extending too far."
Key Quotes:
"There are sticking points: A curb is not a cut. Iran – who while supporting the deal in spirit, have little incentive to freeze its production at levels when it was under sanctions. That’s understandable."
"You can see elements of the stance couched in game theory, with a key lesson from the Prisoners’ Dilemma that self-interest will override group interest. We await Iran’s “special terms”.
And in a world where the supply-demand balance is being impacted by structural dynamics (think how technology is altering demand) as well as cyclical ones (which such pacts can respond to), we wonder how far low cost producers will go to support the higher cost ones. There are market share movements to be made. So we are not getting overly excited about oil prices extending too far."