18 Feb 2016
Key events ahead - Westpac
Analysts at Westpac noted the key events ahead for today.
Key Quotes:
"The Australian Jan labour force survey will be released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Westpac is expecting a 15k rise in employment, consensus at 13k (range -30k to +40k). There was a smaller than expected correction of -1k in Dec. While we may still question the magnitude of recent strength, overall the labour market outside of WA is robust. Growth in employment slowed to 2.6% y/y and we expect the pace to continue to decline until it is in line with our preferred leading indicators. Westpac is forecasting a modest rise in the participation rate from 65.1% to 65.2%, which would bring the unemployment rate up from 5.8% to 5.9%.
China Jan CPI, out at 12:30pm Syd/9:30am local, is expected at 1.9% y/y. PPI is out at the same time and is seen at -5.4%. Inflation is not a barrier to further easing with growth and capital flows more relevant to policy at present. A majority of forecasters see Bank Indonesia cutting rates by 25bp to 7.0%, the move supported by the strong rupiah. There is also Malaysia’s Q4 GDP where growth is expected to fall to 4.1% y/y.
We will see the ECB’s account of the monetary policy meeting. In Jan, the ECB kept the repo rate on hold at 0.05% and the deposit rate at -0.3% but President Draghi’s press conference signalled further easing is imminent. He said downside risks to the inflation outlook had risen since the Dec meeting and that “it will be necessary to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our next meeting.”
In the US, there is the Feb Philly Fed business survey. Initial jobless claims includes the week of the Feb nonfarm payrolls survey."
Aussie jobs preview - what to expect in AUD/USD
Key Quotes:
"The Australian Jan labour force survey will be released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Westpac is expecting a 15k rise in employment, consensus at 13k (range -30k to +40k). There was a smaller than expected correction of -1k in Dec. While we may still question the magnitude of recent strength, overall the labour market outside of WA is robust. Growth in employment slowed to 2.6% y/y and we expect the pace to continue to decline until it is in line with our preferred leading indicators. Westpac is forecasting a modest rise in the participation rate from 65.1% to 65.2%, which would bring the unemployment rate up from 5.8% to 5.9%.
China Jan CPI, out at 12:30pm Syd/9:30am local, is expected at 1.9% y/y. PPI is out at the same time and is seen at -5.4%. Inflation is not a barrier to further easing with growth and capital flows more relevant to policy at present. A majority of forecasters see Bank Indonesia cutting rates by 25bp to 7.0%, the move supported by the strong rupiah. There is also Malaysia’s Q4 GDP where growth is expected to fall to 4.1% y/y.
We will see the ECB’s account of the monetary policy meeting. In Jan, the ECB kept the repo rate on hold at 0.05% and the deposit rate at -0.3% but President Draghi’s press conference signalled further easing is imminent. He said downside risks to the inflation outlook had risen since the Dec meeting and that “it will be necessary to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our next meeting.”
In the US, there is the Feb Philly Fed business survey. Initial jobless claims includes the week of the Feb nonfarm payrolls survey."
Aussie jobs preview - what to expect in AUD/USD