11 Nov 2013
USD/JPY off a bit but momentum remains uptrend
FXstreet.com (Athens) – The USD/JPY was caught under a slight pressure in Asia trading session following the rally on Friday post-NFP jobs data, but during the European trading session is steadying.
USD/JPY retraces slightly following the NFP rally; momentum still upwards
The USD/JPY is trading above the 99.00 handle the past hour, indicating that the cross has regained the uptrend momentum. During the Asian trading session, the pair was under a slight pressure since all the JPY crosses fell back following the sharp rally seen on Friday due to the exceptional US jobs results. Market participants should be aware of the COT CFTC data that released the prior week; CFTC's COT data showed that JPY net speculative positioning net short 73k as of Nov 5 versus 62k in the week prior, the most in a month. Thus, this could be well interpreted by traders that the cross might have an additional support to move further upwards. Last but not least, market participants should not taken aback by the fact that Nikkei gains do not lead to the USD/JPY rise anymore. Precisely, the 20-day% change correlation between USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 Index is currently laying at (+0.1536), a week ago was at (+0.3862), while a month ago was roughly at (+0.5035).
Technical Perspectives on the USD/JPY
The USD/JPY might find solid resistance at the 99.67 area (20th September high, as well as 76.4% Fibonacci resistance), in order to move above the 100.00 handle. On the downside, USD/JPY has found solid support at its 200-daily SMA (now laying at 97.78), but it could be seen that generally the area of the Thursday’s low as of 98.59 - 97.71 might be used as a crucial support area. For the time being, traders should focus on the 99.50, 100.00 levels respectively as both of these depicted levels have major significance and optionality, since a lot of large stops are placed above both.
USD/JPY retraces slightly following the NFP rally; momentum still upwards
The USD/JPY is trading above the 99.00 handle the past hour, indicating that the cross has regained the uptrend momentum. During the Asian trading session, the pair was under a slight pressure since all the JPY crosses fell back following the sharp rally seen on Friday due to the exceptional US jobs results. Market participants should be aware of the COT CFTC data that released the prior week; CFTC's COT data showed that JPY net speculative positioning net short 73k as of Nov 5 versus 62k in the week prior, the most in a month. Thus, this could be well interpreted by traders that the cross might have an additional support to move further upwards. Last but not least, market participants should not taken aback by the fact that Nikkei gains do not lead to the USD/JPY rise anymore. Precisely, the 20-day% change correlation between USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 Index is currently laying at (+0.1536), a week ago was at (+0.3862), while a month ago was roughly at (+0.5035).
Technical Perspectives on the USD/JPY
The USD/JPY might find solid resistance at the 99.67 area (20th September high, as well as 76.4% Fibonacci resistance), in order to move above the 100.00 handle. On the downside, USD/JPY has found solid support at its 200-daily SMA (now laying at 97.78), but it could be seen that generally the area of the Thursday’s low as of 98.59 - 97.71 might be used as a crucial support area. For the time being, traders should focus on the 99.50, 100.00 levels respectively as both of these depicted levels have major significance and optionality, since a lot of large stops are placed above both.