8 Jan 2016
USD playbook for December Non-Farm Payrolls – RBS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at RBS, forecasts non-farm payroll growth of 200K in the December report.
Key Quotes
“That would put December’s result slightly below, but wholly consistent with, the short term and medium-term trends (the 3-month moving average +218K, 12 month average +220K.) While we look for an unchanged unemployment rate at 5.0% in December, the household survey, on which the unemployment rate is based, will include an annual seasonal adjustment revision which may impact the path of the unemployment rate in 2015.”
“A very favourable base effect should contribute to a sharp pickup in the year-over-year average hourly earnings rate as well - in fact, our economists expectation for a +0.1% m/m advance would mark the lowest monthly growth rate of average hourly earnings since June but would still be enough to lift the year-over-year rate from 2.3% to a new multi-year high 2.7% y/y. As is sometimes the case in December, the difficult seasonal adjustments around the holiday season make the “couriers and messengers” subcategory within NFP a factor to watch.”
Key Quotes
“That would put December’s result slightly below, but wholly consistent with, the short term and medium-term trends (the 3-month moving average +218K, 12 month average +220K.) While we look for an unchanged unemployment rate at 5.0% in December, the household survey, on which the unemployment rate is based, will include an annual seasonal adjustment revision which may impact the path of the unemployment rate in 2015.”
“A very favourable base effect should contribute to a sharp pickup in the year-over-year average hourly earnings rate as well - in fact, our economists expectation for a +0.1% m/m advance would mark the lowest monthly growth rate of average hourly earnings since June but would still be enough to lift the year-over-year rate from 2.3% to a new multi-year high 2.7% y/y. As is sometimes the case in December, the difficult seasonal adjustments around the holiday season make the “couriers and messengers” subcategory within NFP a factor to watch.”