7 Jan 2016
Crude and Iran ore weaker, metals and agri markets mixed – ANZ
FXStreet (Delhi) - Research Team at ANZ, presents the commodities market outlook.
Key Quotes
Crude oil prices were weaker amid rising US supply. EIA data suggest gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles increased 10.6m bbl and 6.3m bbl, respectively, last week. The rise in gasoline and distillate inventory more than offset the fall in crude oil inventory levels by 5.09m bbl to 482.3m bbl last week. However, these large moves could be the result of seasonal issues and thus next week’s release will be key to the sustainability of this trend.
Base and precious metal prices were mixed. Gold continued to climb with rising safe-haven demand amid the rebound in market volatility. Rising equities losses and surprising devaluation of the yuan are painting a positive picture for gold. But even news of Chinese state authorities buying was not able to support copper prices. China’s state reserve bureau is seeking as much as 150kt of domestically produced refined copper amid a collapse in prices to six-year lows.
Iron ore markets were weaker. The slowing steel price rally has put the brakes on iron ore prices. The most active rebar (long steel) contract closed down 0.3% after rallying 18% from December lows. On the supply side, iron ore cargoes from Port Hedland climbed last month to 37.55Mt from 37.33Mt in November and 37.12Mt a year ago. We believe the low cost Australian exporters will continue to gain seaborne market share at the expense of high cost producers in 2016, thus flattening the cost curve further.
Agri markets were mixed. The majority of the complex was weak but wheat and soybean posted gains. A recent Bloomberg survey suggests US winter wheat acreage dropped for the third straight year to the lowest since 2009 after prices fell to the cheapest in five years. The USDA is scheduled to release its estimates on January 12.”
Key Quotes
Crude oil prices were weaker amid rising US supply. EIA data suggest gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles increased 10.6m bbl and 6.3m bbl, respectively, last week. The rise in gasoline and distillate inventory more than offset the fall in crude oil inventory levels by 5.09m bbl to 482.3m bbl last week. However, these large moves could be the result of seasonal issues and thus next week’s release will be key to the sustainability of this trend.
Base and precious metal prices were mixed. Gold continued to climb with rising safe-haven demand amid the rebound in market volatility. Rising equities losses and surprising devaluation of the yuan are painting a positive picture for gold. But even news of Chinese state authorities buying was not able to support copper prices. China’s state reserve bureau is seeking as much as 150kt of domestically produced refined copper amid a collapse in prices to six-year lows.
Iron ore markets were weaker. The slowing steel price rally has put the brakes on iron ore prices. The most active rebar (long steel) contract closed down 0.3% after rallying 18% from December lows. On the supply side, iron ore cargoes from Port Hedland climbed last month to 37.55Mt from 37.33Mt in November and 37.12Mt a year ago. We believe the low cost Australian exporters will continue to gain seaborne market share at the expense of high cost producers in 2016, thus flattening the cost curve further.
Agri markets were mixed. The majority of the complex was weak but wheat and soybean posted gains. A recent Bloomberg survey suggests US winter wheat acreage dropped for the third straight year to the lowest since 2009 after prices fell to the cheapest in five years. The USDA is scheduled to release its estimates on January 12.”