23 Dec 2015
UK: Q3 GDP revised down, likely to hurt Sterling in 2016 - SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, notes that the UK Q3 GDP revised down to 0.4%, and Q2 revised down to 0.5%, year-over year growth is now 2.1%, after peaking at 3% in Q2 2014.
Key Quotes
“The nominal growth rate has slowed more sharply, to 2.1% from a peak of 5.4%. The revision was due to the Finance sector. Year over year output per hour stayed at 1.3%. That should help sustain decent GDP growth through 2016, but even so, it looks as though the peak growth in the cycle is behind us and with the MPC pushing thoughts of rate hikes well into the second half of 2016, it’s by no means certain that rates will rise at all unless forced to by, say, a post-Brexit currency crisis. Which, of course, fuels my belief that sterling may have a rough time in 2016.”
Key Quotes
“The nominal growth rate has slowed more sharply, to 2.1% from a peak of 5.4%. The revision was due to the Finance sector. Year over year output per hour stayed at 1.3%. That should help sustain decent GDP growth through 2016, but even so, it looks as though the peak growth in the cycle is behind us and with the MPC pushing thoughts of rate hikes well into the second half of 2016, it’s by no means certain that rates will rise at all unless forced to by, say, a post-Brexit currency crisis. Which, of course, fuels my belief that sterling may have a rough time in 2016.”