15 Dec 2015
UK CPI preview: What to expect of GBP/USD?
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair ran into offers close to 1.5185 (23.6% of July 2014-April 2015 plunge) and surrendered major part of its gains ahead of the data in the UK, which is expected to show the core inflation ticked higher in November.
Rebound in inflation could be short-lived
The headline figure is seen dropping 0.1% m/m, while in annualised terms the number is expected to show a rebound of 0.1%. A better-than-expected headline figure on a monthly basis could cheer sterling bulls, but the resulting rally could be short-lived as oil prices have dropped sharply in December and that is likely to result in low December inflation print.
A more sustainable rally could be seen only if an upbeat headline figure is accompanied by a rise in the core inflation to 1.2% y/y. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected headline CPI and core CPI would spell trouble for the British Pound.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
At 1.5150, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.5185 (23.6% of July 2014-April 2015 plunge), ahead of the major hurdle at 1.5235 (50-DMA) – 1.5248 (50% of Apr-Jun rally), which if taken out could see the pair test offers at 1.53 handle. A better-than-expected headline CPI and core CPI could see the pair chew through offers at 1.5248. On the other hand, a support is seen at 1.5113 (23.6% of 1.5819-1.4895), under which the pair could drop to 1.5027 (Nov 6 low), which, if taken out shall open doors for a re-test of 1.4956 (Dec 8 low). A weaker CPI and core CPI could result in a drop to 1.5027.
Rebound in inflation could be short-lived
The headline figure is seen dropping 0.1% m/m, while in annualised terms the number is expected to show a rebound of 0.1%. A better-than-expected headline figure on a monthly basis could cheer sterling bulls, but the resulting rally could be short-lived as oil prices have dropped sharply in December and that is likely to result in low December inflation print.
A more sustainable rally could be seen only if an upbeat headline figure is accompanied by a rise in the core inflation to 1.2% y/y. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected headline CPI and core CPI would spell trouble for the British Pound.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
At 1.5150, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.5185 (23.6% of July 2014-April 2015 plunge), ahead of the major hurdle at 1.5235 (50-DMA) – 1.5248 (50% of Apr-Jun rally), which if taken out could see the pair test offers at 1.53 handle. A better-than-expected headline CPI and core CPI could see the pair chew through offers at 1.5248. On the other hand, a support is seen at 1.5113 (23.6% of 1.5819-1.4895), under which the pair could drop to 1.5027 (Nov 6 low), which, if taken out shall open doors for a re-test of 1.4956 (Dec 8 low). A weaker CPI and core CPI could result in a drop to 1.5027.