20 Nov 2015
Greater likelihood of EURUSD hitting parity – Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, suggests that the likelihood of EURUSD hitting parity is high on a 6-9 month horizon.
Key Quotes
“We officially update our EURUSD forecast pointing to a higher possibility of EURUSD breaking parity. Elsewhere, we believe that GBP outperformance among European G10 FX is to continue, benefitting most from a Fed liftoff and a more dovish ECB. In the near term, the ECB’s dovish stance may put more downside pressure on SEK than CHF, as we judge the Riksbank has more easy policy options to follow the ECB than the SNB. However, in the medium term the inflation outlook is clearly much healthier in Sweden than in Switzerland and we expect EURCHF to appreciate gradually throughout 2016-17, with EURSEK starting to trade weakly in mid-2016.”
“With the commodity currencies we forecast further depreciation in 2016, as commodity prices remain low and rate hikes by the Fed affect the rate differential. We believe that AUD is likely to depreciate the most, while CAD is likely to depreciate the least against USD. The full piece can be found here.”
Key Quotes
“We officially update our EURUSD forecast pointing to a higher possibility of EURUSD breaking parity. Elsewhere, we believe that GBP outperformance among European G10 FX is to continue, benefitting most from a Fed liftoff and a more dovish ECB. In the near term, the ECB’s dovish stance may put more downside pressure on SEK than CHF, as we judge the Riksbank has more easy policy options to follow the ECB than the SNB. However, in the medium term the inflation outlook is clearly much healthier in Sweden than in Switzerland and we expect EURCHF to appreciate gradually throughout 2016-17, with EURSEK starting to trade weakly in mid-2016.”
“With the commodity currencies we forecast further depreciation in 2016, as commodity prices remain low and rate hikes by the Fed affect the rate differential. We believe that AUD is likely to depreciate the most, while CAD is likely to depreciate the least against USD. The full piece can be found here.”