12 Nov 2015
Brazil: If Levy goes it has to be for Meirelles (to avoid sell-off) - BBH
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to Ilan Solot, Emerging Market Currency Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman comments regarding recent rumors from Brazil about Finance Minister Joaquim Levy being replaced by Henrique Meirelles.
Key Quotes:
“Just to be clear, these are just rumors; President Dilma has given no indication that a move is imminent. Markets reacted positively to the news of Levy’s replacement. Why, given that Levy is seen as one of the few anchors of sound economic policy of this government? Here are two possible reasons: 1) If Levy goes, which looks likely at some point anyway, Meirelles is better than any other visible candidate; and 2) Meirelles would have the full support from Lula, which some say is engineering this move.”
“Still, we caution against jumping on a Meirelles-based rally on the back of further rumors – the situation is fluid and far from certain. Best to wait and see, in our view. The only certainty now is that should Levy be replaced by any obvious PT-friendly name that is not Meirelles, there will be a massive sell-off. So the risks to Brazilian assets, at least as it pertains to this event, seem very asymmetric to the downside.
Key Quotes:
“Just to be clear, these are just rumors; President Dilma has given no indication that a move is imminent. Markets reacted positively to the news of Levy’s replacement. Why, given that Levy is seen as one of the few anchors of sound economic policy of this government? Here are two possible reasons: 1) If Levy goes, which looks likely at some point anyway, Meirelles is better than any other visible candidate; and 2) Meirelles would have the full support from Lula, which some say is engineering this move.”
“Still, we caution against jumping on a Meirelles-based rally on the back of further rumors – the situation is fluid and far from certain. Best to wait and see, in our view. The only certainty now is that should Levy be replaced by any obvious PT-friendly name that is not Meirelles, there will be a massive sell-off. So the risks to Brazilian assets, at least as it pertains to this event, seem very asymmetric to the downside.