3 Nov 2015
RUB keeps the neutral outlook – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The perspective for the Russian currency remains neutral for the time being, according to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
Key Quotes
“We remain neutral on RUB, as our commodity team sees stable oil prices through yearend and with the CBR committed to buying USD if RUB falls below 60. Oil price volatility remains a risk”.
“The economy has finally started to show positive signs of stabilization in 3Q, which might support our call that the economy already troughed in 2Q”.
“According to Economic Ministry estimates, real GDP stabilized in month-over month seasonally adjusted terms in July-August and started to grow in September”.
“Industrial production and investment fell by much less than expected in September, with the decline easing to its weakest levels since 1Q”.
“Also, the labor market remained very tight with the unemployment rate falling even further to approach historical lows, even despite the negative seasonality”.
Key Quotes
“We remain neutral on RUB, as our commodity team sees stable oil prices through yearend and with the CBR committed to buying USD if RUB falls below 60. Oil price volatility remains a risk”.
“The economy has finally started to show positive signs of stabilization in 3Q, which might support our call that the economy already troughed in 2Q”.
“According to Economic Ministry estimates, real GDP stabilized in month-over month seasonally adjusted terms in July-August and started to grow in September”.
“Industrial production and investment fell by much less than expected in September, with the decline easing to its weakest levels since 1Q”.
“Also, the labor market remained very tight with the unemployment rate falling even further to approach historical lows, even despite the negative seasonality”.