2 Sep 2013
Flash: NZD/USD eyes pullback below 0.7700 – BNZ
FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - The BNZ Research Team analyzes the short-term outlook and event risks of the NZD/USD.
Key quotes
“Local NZ data will take something of a backseat this week as insight into Q2 NZ GDP and the latest commodity/dairy price data will be the main themes.”
“The commodities data, in isolation, should remain NZD positive. We expect tomorrow’s ANZ commodity export price index to rise 1%, with dairy prices at Wednesday morning’s GDT auction expected to hold steady at very high levels.”
“According to our short-term valuation model, fundamental NZD/USD ‘fair-value’ fell around a cent last week, entirely driven by rising risk aversion. The weekend’s IMM data revealed positioning in the NZD is now a little more balanced – speculators no longer hold a net short position. Meanwhile, our momentum model tells us NZD momentum will flip from neutral to negative on a pullback to 0.7693.”
Key quotes
“Local NZ data will take something of a backseat this week as insight into Q2 NZ GDP and the latest commodity/dairy price data will be the main themes.”
“The commodities data, in isolation, should remain NZD positive. We expect tomorrow’s ANZ commodity export price index to rise 1%, with dairy prices at Wednesday morning’s GDT auction expected to hold steady at very high levels.”
“According to our short-term valuation model, fundamental NZD/USD ‘fair-value’ fell around a cent last week, entirely driven by rising risk aversion. The weekend’s IMM data revealed positioning in the NZD is now a little more balanced – speculators no longer hold a net short position. Meanwhile, our momentum model tells us NZD momentum will flip from neutral to negative on a pullback to 0.7693.”