18 Jun 2015
US May CPI expected to show an above consensus gain – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Economists at Nomura look for a slightly higher reading for US May CPI than consensus expectations, forecasting a 0.6% MoM gain.
Key Quotes
“We expect headline CPI to increase by 0.6% (0.58%) m-o-m in May following a 0.1% gain in the previous month (Consensus: +0.5%) (see Figure 1). That would mark the highest reading since February 2013 and push up the year-over-year inflation to +0.1% (+0.09%), entering positive territory after a decline of 0.2% in the previous month. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 238.103 compared with the market consensus forecast of 237.995.“
“Some of the expected acceleration in headline inflation will probably come from higher gasoline prices, which are estimated to have increased by 9.9% in May.”
“While our headline CPI forecast is slightly higher than the market consensus forecast, our PPI-based CPI, which is constructed using PPI’s components of consumer goods and services, showed an increase of 0.789% m-o-m, suggesting some upside risks.”
Key Quotes
“We expect headline CPI to increase by 0.6% (0.58%) m-o-m in May following a 0.1% gain in the previous month (Consensus: +0.5%) (see Figure 1). That would mark the highest reading since February 2013 and push up the year-over-year inflation to +0.1% (+0.09%), entering positive territory after a decline of 0.2% in the previous month. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 238.103 compared with the market consensus forecast of 237.995.“
“Some of the expected acceleration in headline inflation will probably come from higher gasoline prices, which are estimated to have increased by 9.9% in May.”
“While our headline CPI forecast is slightly higher than the market consensus forecast, our PPI-based CPI, which is constructed using PPI’s components of consumer goods and services, showed an increase of 0.789% m-o-m, suggesting some upside risks.”