15 Jun 2015
Credit Agricole: EUR risks remain tilted to the downside – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Credit Agricole, the combination of Greece exit fears and a potential optimistic tone of the June FOMC Meeting might keep the EUR vulnerable against AUD and NZD, as noted by eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“Our central case is still for a compromise to be found most likely in the form of a partial bailout extension in exchange for the implementation of some of the reforms. This should help avoid imminent default ahead of the IMF loan repayment next week. It could still leave open the prospect for a potential referendum in Greece on the full reform package in July, however, and keep the risks for EUR on the downside.”
“Market uneasiness could grow ahead of the Eurogroup meeting and keep the downside pressure on EURUSD in place for now.”
“One key question is also how the Fed will respond to the intensifying uncertainty about Greece. We suspect that while Yellen will try not to rock the boat too much, it will be hard for her to ignore the latest improvement in US data and especially various inflation gauges. Positive surprises from today's US IP could fuel more hawkish expectations some more. All that should keep USD supported broadly this week.”
“Lingering Greek fears and more constructive message from the Fed could make for a less favourable backdrop for risk correlated G10 currencies. We suspect that the likes of AUD and NZD could remain vulnerable alongside EUR.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“Our central case is still for a compromise to be found most likely in the form of a partial bailout extension in exchange for the implementation of some of the reforms. This should help avoid imminent default ahead of the IMF loan repayment next week. It could still leave open the prospect for a potential referendum in Greece on the full reform package in July, however, and keep the risks for EUR on the downside.”
“Market uneasiness could grow ahead of the Eurogroup meeting and keep the downside pressure on EURUSD in place for now.”
“One key question is also how the Fed will respond to the intensifying uncertainty about Greece. We suspect that while Yellen will try not to rock the boat too much, it will be hard for her to ignore the latest improvement in US data and especially various inflation gauges. Positive surprises from today's US IP could fuel more hawkish expectations some more. All that should keep USD supported broadly this week.”
“Lingering Greek fears and more constructive message from the Fed could make for a less favourable backdrop for risk correlated G10 currencies. We suspect that the likes of AUD and NZD could remain vulnerable alongside EUR.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.