13 May 2015
Time to get short of the NZD and AUD? - ANZ
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Richard Yetsenga, analyst at ANZ offered insight in to the AUD and NZD and explained that while most agree with the idea that the NZD is eventually a sell, we found a very mixed reception to our idea that the time has approached.
Key quotes:
"Some simply referred to the carry still on offer in NZ, particularly against the backdrop of the RBNZ apparently still on hold."
"Others argued that with the RBNZ still not in easing mode and USD strength still the dominant trend in currency markets, selling the commodity currencies outright was a preferred approach, with the AUD a favourite given its performance to date."
"And on the AUD/NZD, cross positioning seems to be long, but with only a relatively modest range of accounts involved."
"There seems to be a reasonably broadly held view that the rally to date (around 1.06 at the time) had already priced a substantial amount of the re-convergence between the economies, particularly given the risk that the broader outperformance of the NZD was not yet definitively over."
Key quotes:
"Some simply referred to the carry still on offer in NZ, particularly against the backdrop of the RBNZ apparently still on hold."
"Others argued that with the RBNZ still not in easing mode and USD strength still the dominant trend in currency markets, selling the commodity currencies outright was a preferred approach, with the AUD a favourite given its performance to date."
"And on the AUD/NZD, cross positioning seems to be long, but with only a relatively modest range of accounts involved."
"There seems to be a reasonably broadly held view that the rally to date (around 1.06 at the time) had already priced a substantial amount of the re-convergence between the economies, particularly given the risk that the broader outperformance of the NZD was not yet definitively over."