7 May 2015
Election guide - Labour party - BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman offered an in depth insight to the UK election in a guide, start with the Labour:
"The first exit polls for the UK election are expected to start coming out at 22:00 GMT today. We think that a clear picture of the voting outcome will emerge around 4:00-5:00 GMT on Friday. Here is a quick party by party guide and analysis."
"Labour: Expected to get 267 seats from 258 currently. It would likely pick up 38 seats from the Conservatives and 9 from other parties, while losing 38 to the SNP. Most projections still give a minority Labour government the highest odds. For example, odds implied by Betfair suggest a 36.4% chance of a Labour minority government. This would require the support of the SNP, either explicitly in a coalition (contradicting campaign pledges) or implicitly (for example via a Labour-LibDem coalition with support of the SNP in vote of confidences). A Labour victory would probably be a mild negative for markets. Investors are already prepared for a hung parliament and know that Labour has a good chance of leading the new government. So it wouldn’t be a major surprise. Moreover, a more pro-growth approach could benefit prove to be positive in the medium-term and taking the EU referendum off the table kills one major tail risk for the pound."
"The first exit polls for the UK election are expected to start coming out at 22:00 GMT today. We think that a clear picture of the voting outcome will emerge around 4:00-5:00 GMT on Friday. Here is a quick party by party guide and analysis."
"Labour: Expected to get 267 seats from 258 currently. It would likely pick up 38 seats from the Conservatives and 9 from other parties, while losing 38 to the SNP. Most projections still give a minority Labour government the highest odds. For example, odds implied by Betfair suggest a 36.4% chance of a Labour minority government. This would require the support of the SNP, either explicitly in a coalition (contradicting campaign pledges) or implicitly (for example via a Labour-LibDem coalition with support of the SNP in vote of confidences). A Labour victory would probably be a mild negative for markets. Investors are already prepared for a hung parliament and know that Labour has a good chance of leading the new government. So it wouldn’t be a major surprise. Moreover, a more pro-growth approach could benefit prove to be positive in the medium-term and taking the EU referendum off the table kills one major tail risk for the pound."