7 May 2015
China trade data preview – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Tim Condon of ING, previews the Chinese April trade data release, and further notes that if the data don’t support hopes of accelerating export growth Q2 GDP forecasts might be revised lower.
Key Quotes
“April trade data is due tomorrow at 10am local time.The consensus forecast for export growth is 1.9% YoY, which would be a sharp reversal of March’s -15.0% growth.”
“Exports typically bounce in March from depressed January-February levels back to near their 4Q average level but this hasn’t happened for the last two years. And this year they didn’t even bounce; March’s $145 billion level was below the $184 billion average level for January-February. The consensus forecast assumes the bounce was pushed to April, which is not unreasonable considering the late timing of this year’s Lunar New Year holiday.”
“The consensus forecast for import growth, -12.2% YoY, is little changed from March. Crude oil accounted for 5.3 percentage points of the 17.6% year-to-date decline in March but that still leaves non-oil imports down 12.3 ppts.”
“As elsewhere, export weakness has spread to domestic spending and widened the trade surplus. Through March it was up $127 billion on the year and the consensus forecast for April is $40 billion.”
“If the data don’t support hopes of accelerating export growth (4.7% YTD YoY in March) we will revise our 7.0% 2Q GDP growth forecast lower (Bloomberg consensus 7.0%).”
Key Quotes
“April trade data is due tomorrow at 10am local time.The consensus forecast for export growth is 1.9% YoY, which would be a sharp reversal of March’s -15.0% growth.”
“Exports typically bounce in March from depressed January-February levels back to near their 4Q average level but this hasn’t happened for the last two years. And this year they didn’t even bounce; March’s $145 billion level was below the $184 billion average level for January-February. The consensus forecast assumes the bounce was pushed to April, which is not unreasonable considering the late timing of this year’s Lunar New Year holiday.”
“The consensus forecast for import growth, -12.2% YoY, is little changed from March. Crude oil accounted for 5.3 percentage points of the 17.6% year-to-date decline in March but that still leaves non-oil imports down 12.3 ppts.”
“As elsewhere, export weakness has spread to domestic spending and widened the trade surplus. Through March it was up $127 billion on the year and the consensus forecast for April is $40 billion.”
“If the data don’t support hopes of accelerating export growth (4.7% YTD YoY in March) we will revise our 7.0% 2Q GDP growth forecast lower (Bloomberg consensus 7.0%).”