7 May 2015
Norges Bank to remain on hold today – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Jens Pedersen expects the Nordic central bank to refrain from cutting rates today.
Key Quotes
“We expect Norges Bank to stay on hold today. Admittedly this is going to be a close call as the bank in March clearly signalled that interest rates would be cut either in May or June if economic developments panned out as forecast”.
“Our key arguments for Norges Bank waiting until June are: 1) it wants to get confirmation that the economic situation is deteriorating and the housing market cooling. By waiting until 18 June Norges Bank will get another one to two months of data including the important Q1 GDP figures and the new round of the oil investment survey”.
“2) economic figures have broadly been in line with expectations, e.g. core inflation, unemployment, level of the NOK, forward rates abroad, house prices”
“3) the oil price is significantly higher both in USD and NOK terms and”.
“4) credit growth to households seems to be accelerating. We do, however, expect Norges Bank to keep a strong easing bias, probably by stating that the MPC discussed a rate cut as an option”.
Key Quotes
“We expect Norges Bank to stay on hold today. Admittedly this is going to be a close call as the bank in March clearly signalled that interest rates would be cut either in May or June if economic developments panned out as forecast”.
“Our key arguments for Norges Bank waiting until June are: 1) it wants to get confirmation that the economic situation is deteriorating and the housing market cooling. By waiting until 18 June Norges Bank will get another one to two months of data including the important Q1 GDP figures and the new round of the oil investment survey”.
“2) economic figures have broadly been in line with expectations, e.g. core inflation, unemployment, level of the NOK, forward rates abroad, house prices”
“3) the oil price is significantly higher both in USD and NOK terms and”.
“4) credit growth to households seems to be accelerating. We do, however, expect Norges Bank to keep a strong easing bias, probably by stating that the MPC discussed a rate cut as an option”.