8 Aug 2013
Flash: NZD/USD downtrend risk palpable – ANZ
FXstreet.com (New York) - Head of Global Markets Research Tim Riddell at ANZ postulates the short-term outlook of the NZD/USD.
Key quotes
“Rebounds off 0.7685-00 may have triggered a relatively sharp, but standard, correction to test 0.8100-10, but the even sharper slump to retest 0.7685-00 highlights the vulnerability of NZD. A close above 0.7950 is needed to avoid a further series of slides towards 0.7550. Even if NZD can sustain a move back above 0.7950, it should be seen as forming a consolidation, rather than a genuine rally.”
“Weekly momentum shows potential for a broader period of consolidation. Although I should note that rising support is holding (dashed blue line – currently 0.7670), the broader bias remains towards downside retracements to 0.7550 and potentially the 0.7335-50 area after any interim consolidation. A near term close above 0.7950 should merely allow for further consolidation before the next slide develops towards those longer term retracement levels.”
Key quotes
“Rebounds off 0.7685-00 may have triggered a relatively sharp, but standard, correction to test 0.8100-10, but the even sharper slump to retest 0.7685-00 highlights the vulnerability of NZD. A close above 0.7950 is needed to avoid a further series of slides towards 0.7550. Even if NZD can sustain a move back above 0.7950, it should be seen as forming a consolidation, rather than a genuine rally.”
“Weekly momentum shows potential for a broader period of consolidation. Although I should note that rising support is holding (dashed blue line – currently 0.7670), the broader bias remains towards downside retracements to 0.7550 and potentially the 0.7335-50 area after any interim consolidation. A near term close above 0.7950 should merely allow for further consolidation before the next slide develops towards those longer term retracement levels.”