29 Apr 2015
Outlook for AUD and crosses – ANZ
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at ANZ, gives the outlook and the expected range for AUD/USD and other Aussie crosses.
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: Further weakness in US data saw liquidation of USD long positions into tonight’s FOMC meeting, where markets are expecting a cautious message to be delivered. In the near term the AUD will continue to track the USD trend. Expected range: 0.7830 – 0.8180”
“AUD/NZD: Normally in USD liquidation, it is the kiwi that squeezes harder, but recent price action has shown it is the AUD that is finding supply hard to come by. NZ data today is likely to be overlooked as market dynamics such as supply and the FOMC liquidity scramble dominate. The wording of the RBNZ statement tomorrow will be important for this trend to continue. We expect that it will contain a softer tone. Given recent performance we raise the stop on our long AUD/NZD trade to entry (1.0230). Expected range: 1.0300 – 1.0460”
“AUD/EUR: The EUR mostly kept pace with the NZD leaving this cross only marginally higher. With attention focused on USD crosses, this is likely to continue. Expected range: 0.7110 – 0.7180”
“AUD/JPY: It wasn’t all a USD move last night with JPY attracting flow as markets take the view that stability is more desirable than growth if the US is slowing. Expected range: 93.63 – 97.73”
“AUD/GBP: Q1 GDP disappointed last night, showing the lowest quarterly growth since Q4 2012, helping this cross to rebound. However, given such a disappointing result, GBP was surprisingly resilient. Expected range: 0.5090 – 0.5360”
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: Further weakness in US data saw liquidation of USD long positions into tonight’s FOMC meeting, where markets are expecting a cautious message to be delivered. In the near term the AUD will continue to track the USD trend. Expected range: 0.7830 – 0.8180”
“AUD/NZD: Normally in USD liquidation, it is the kiwi that squeezes harder, but recent price action has shown it is the AUD that is finding supply hard to come by. NZ data today is likely to be overlooked as market dynamics such as supply and the FOMC liquidity scramble dominate. The wording of the RBNZ statement tomorrow will be important for this trend to continue. We expect that it will contain a softer tone. Given recent performance we raise the stop on our long AUD/NZD trade to entry (1.0230). Expected range: 1.0300 – 1.0460”
“AUD/EUR: The EUR mostly kept pace with the NZD leaving this cross only marginally higher. With attention focused on USD crosses, this is likely to continue. Expected range: 0.7110 – 0.7180”
“AUD/JPY: It wasn’t all a USD move last night with JPY attracting flow as markets take the view that stability is more desirable than growth if the US is slowing. Expected range: 93.63 – 97.73”
“AUD/GBP: Q1 GDP disappointed last night, showing the lowest quarterly growth since Q4 2012, helping this cross to rebound. However, given such a disappointing result, GBP was surprisingly resilient. Expected range: 0.5090 – 0.5360”