31 Jul 2013
Flash: FOMC client survey results; most hold USD longs - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - On July 30, Nomura conducted a global client survey to get their client's views on the FOMC and positioning ahead of the key risk event.
Key results
"Expectation for changes in forward guidance at FOMC meeting tomorrow is low. More than two thirds of the respondents do not expect changes in forward guidance at this meeting (70%). Among those who expect change in the forward guidance, a new commitment to keep low interest rate until unemployment rate reaches 6.0% is regarded as the most likely change (18%)."
"Expectations for changes in asset purchases are quite limited (3%), while a majority of respondents (53%) expect the Fed to hint at a time-table for tapering at the July meeting. Greater than 60% of the respondents expect the Fed to start tapering in September (63%), while 19% expect the beginning of the tapering to be in 2014 or later. The consensus on tapering is that the Fed may indicate the time-table for tapering tomorrow and then, start tapering at the September meeting."
"The majority of respondents have USD long positions ahead of FOMC meeting (55%) even though the conviction level is not high. Only 12% have USD short positions, suggesting USD positioning is still skewed toward USD longs."
Key results
"Expectation for changes in forward guidance at FOMC meeting tomorrow is low. More than two thirds of the respondents do not expect changes in forward guidance at this meeting (70%). Among those who expect change in the forward guidance, a new commitment to keep low interest rate until unemployment rate reaches 6.0% is regarded as the most likely change (18%)."
"Expectations for changes in asset purchases are quite limited (3%), while a majority of respondents (53%) expect the Fed to hint at a time-table for tapering at the July meeting. Greater than 60% of the respondents expect the Fed to start tapering in September (63%), while 19% expect the beginning of the tapering to be in 2014 or later. The consensus on tapering is that the Fed may indicate the time-table for tapering tomorrow and then, start tapering at the September meeting."
"The majority of respondents have USD long positions ahead of FOMC meeting (55%) even though the conviction level is not high. Only 12% have USD short positions, suggesting USD positioning is still skewed toward USD longs."