30 Jul 2013
Flash: Silvio Berlusconi’s tax fraud conviction – TD Securities
FXstreet.com (London) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist, Rates and FX Research at TD Securities noted the Italian Supreme Court is expected to deliver a judgment on the final appeal for Silvio Berlusconi’s tax fraud conviction.
“It’s now looking doubtful that we’ll have a verdict today”.
“If upheld, Berlusconi would face four years in jail and a five year ban from holding office”.
“There’s a risk that a confirmation of the conviction sees his PdL Party remove themselves from the coalition government and send Italy back to early elections”.
“While there will be a large amount of bravado, Berlusconi has said he does not think PdL should leave the coalition if the judgment goes against him and that he will serve his time in prison. We do not expect the government to fall this week, but the uncertainty is likely to feed some BTP underperformance on the market worries after a guilty verdict”.
“This is yet another in a long line of issues feeding the instability of the coalition and the 40-50% chance it does not survive another six months as both PdL and factions within PD all have incentives for early elections”.
“It’s now looking doubtful that we’ll have a verdict today”.
“If upheld, Berlusconi would face four years in jail and a five year ban from holding office”.
“There’s a risk that a confirmation of the conviction sees his PdL Party remove themselves from the coalition government and send Italy back to early elections”.
“While there will be a large amount of bravado, Berlusconi has said he does not think PdL should leave the coalition if the judgment goes against him and that he will serve his time in prison. We do not expect the government to fall this week, but the uncertainty is likely to feed some BTP underperformance on the market worries after a guilty verdict”.
“This is yet another in a long line of issues feeding the instability of the coalition and the 40-50% chance it does not survive another six months as both PdL and factions within PD all have incentives for early elections”.