24 Jul 2013
Flash: Tracking growth forecasts for G10 – ANZ
FXstreet.com (New York) - Currency markets have been focused largely on US growth developments over recent months. While China features as well, other major economies have been given short shrifts, notes Andrew Salter and Richard Yetsenga at ANZ.
Key quotes
The UK and Japan show the only recent upside revisions for growth in 2013, with Japan dominating 2014 upgrades.
“In terms of downgrades, China dominates due to the sheer size of the revisions. No fewer than 0.7 percentage points have been knocked off its 2013 outlook in the last three months, and 0.4 points for 2014.”
“In terms of the level of growth forecast, rather than changes in forecasts, the euro zone is well below the other countries, suggesting that the risk of a turn in the policy cycle is least likely there. The UK, on the other hand, looks a little bullish when jointly considering both the levels and direction of revision – all said, Japan is the clear standout.”
Key quotes
The UK and Japan show the only recent upside revisions for growth in 2013, with Japan dominating 2014 upgrades.
“In terms of downgrades, China dominates due to the sheer size of the revisions. No fewer than 0.7 percentage points have been knocked off its 2013 outlook in the last three months, and 0.4 points for 2014.”
“In terms of the level of growth forecast, rather than changes in forecasts, the euro zone is well below the other countries, suggesting that the risk of a turn in the policy cycle is least likely there. The UK, on the other hand, looks a little bullish when jointly considering both the levels and direction of revision – all said, Japan is the clear standout.”