23 Mar 2015
Specs increase AUD and USD longs – ANZ
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at ANZ share the CFTC speculative positioning data for the week ending 17th March, 2015, noting that USD net buying increased for the first in five weeks, while increase in AUD net longs after six consecutive weeks of selling was a surprise.
Key Quotes
“Leveraged funds increased their overall net long USD positioning by USD0.6bn to USD35.9bn ahead of the FOMC decision on 18 March 2015.”
“This is the first in five weeks that USD positioning was added. Post the FOMC, it is likely that USD positioning would likely have been reduced given that EUR/USD jumped 4 big figures post the FOMC statement.”
“The adding of USD longs was driven by net selling in EUR, JPY, NZD and MXN while other currencies saw net buying. Curiously, there was a large increase in short positions in the ICE US Dollar Index. There are times when positioning based on the aggregation of individual currencies diverge from the ICE US Dollar Index positioning, which is a direct way of playing the DXY Index.”
“EUR registered the largest net selling after 4 consecutive weeks of net buying. Net short positioning in EUR increased to USD20.6bn from USD18.0bn previously. The increase in net short positioning in EUR comes as EUR/USD broke 1.05 during the week.”
“Net selling in NZD was registered even as the RBNZ kept rates on hold on 12 March. While the tone of the statement was neutral there was a hint of a softer bias from the inclusion of a rate cut scenario.”
“Notably, the biggest surprise in the week was registered in AUD which saw net buying of USD1.4bn after six consecutive weeks of net selling.”
“Given that the selling pressure in AUD had been so pronounced in recent times, we read the reduction of net shorts in AUD as positioning reduction prior to the FOMC meeting.”
Key Quotes
“Leveraged funds increased their overall net long USD positioning by USD0.6bn to USD35.9bn ahead of the FOMC decision on 18 March 2015.”
“This is the first in five weeks that USD positioning was added. Post the FOMC, it is likely that USD positioning would likely have been reduced given that EUR/USD jumped 4 big figures post the FOMC statement.”
“The adding of USD longs was driven by net selling in EUR, JPY, NZD and MXN while other currencies saw net buying. Curiously, there was a large increase in short positions in the ICE US Dollar Index. There are times when positioning based on the aggregation of individual currencies diverge from the ICE US Dollar Index positioning, which is a direct way of playing the DXY Index.”
“EUR registered the largest net selling after 4 consecutive weeks of net buying. Net short positioning in EUR increased to USD20.6bn from USD18.0bn previously. The increase in net short positioning in EUR comes as EUR/USD broke 1.05 during the week.”
“Net selling in NZD was registered even as the RBNZ kept rates on hold on 12 March. While the tone of the statement was neutral there was a hint of a softer bias from the inclusion of a rate cut scenario.”
“Notably, the biggest surprise in the week was registered in AUD which saw net buying of USD1.4bn after six consecutive weeks of net selling.”
“Given that the selling pressure in AUD had been so pronounced in recent times, we read the reduction of net shorts in AUD as positioning reduction prior to the FOMC meeting.”