17 Mar 2015
RBA minutes in focus - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - The main event in Australia today will be the release of the RBA minutes at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"This meeting includes a briefing on the semi-annual stability review. The Sep minutes last year (the previous briefing) sounded hawkish, with the RBA noting credit growth and rising housing prices in their assessment of the financial system, stating that “policy also needed to be cognisant of the risks to future growth that could accompany a large further build-up in asset prices”. Given the easing bias that was introduced in the statement following the meeting (rates only steady “for the time being”), we are expecting that commentary on financial stability will not spill over into the considerations for monetary policy paragraph this month."
"The Bank of Japan meeting concludes today, with the decision usually some time after 11:30am Tokyo, often near 12:30pm (2:30pm Syd/11:30am Sing/HK). There should be no expectation of any policy tweaks yet still could be a kneejerk dip in USD/JPY on BoJ insistence that current policy is on track to see inflation rise to the 2% target."
"Bank Indonesia will release its policy decision, with almost all forecasters expecting no change, but a couple for a 25bp cut to 7.25%. Singapore Feb non-oil domestic exports will also be released."
"The dairy auction in the Lon/NY session will be of interest, especially given the recent news on the milk poisoning threat in New Zealand. At the previous auction, whole milk powder prices dipped -1% to $3241/tonne."
"The German Mar ZEW analysts’ expectations is forecast to continue to rise to 59.4 from 53. In the US, Feb housing starts are seen to fall again, down 2.4%m/m even after a weak Jan print. The market median for Feb housing permits is a 0.5%m/m rise. While the softness in Jan housing starts may have been partly attributable to the harsh weather, the lower print for permits suggests that suggests that there is still underlying softness."
Key Quotes
"This meeting includes a briefing on the semi-annual stability review. The Sep minutes last year (the previous briefing) sounded hawkish, with the RBA noting credit growth and rising housing prices in their assessment of the financial system, stating that “policy also needed to be cognisant of the risks to future growth that could accompany a large further build-up in asset prices”. Given the easing bias that was introduced in the statement following the meeting (rates only steady “for the time being”), we are expecting that commentary on financial stability will not spill over into the considerations for monetary policy paragraph this month."
"The Bank of Japan meeting concludes today, with the decision usually some time after 11:30am Tokyo, often near 12:30pm (2:30pm Syd/11:30am Sing/HK). There should be no expectation of any policy tweaks yet still could be a kneejerk dip in USD/JPY on BoJ insistence that current policy is on track to see inflation rise to the 2% target."
"Bank Indonesia will release its policy decision, with almost all forecasters expecting no change, but a couple for a 25bp cut to 7.25%. Singapore Feb non-oil domestic exports will also be released."
"The dairy auction in the Lon/NY session will be of interest, especially given the recent news on the milk poisoning threat in New Zealand. At the previous auction, whole milk powder prices dipped -1% to $3241/tonne."
"The German Mar ZEW analysts’ expectations is forecast to continue to rise to 59.4 from 53. In the US, Feb housing starts are seen to fall again, down 2.4%m/m even after a weak Jan print. The market median for Feb housing permits is a 0.5%m/m rise. While the softness in Jan housing starts may have been partly attributable to the harsh weather, the lower print for permits suggests that suggests that there is still underlying softness."