10 Mar 2015
German exports to grind higher – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Oliver Rakau, Economist at Deutsche Bank, views that the German January trade was disappointing but the momentum remains upbeat, and the moderate uptrend in orders suggests that exports might grind gradually higher.
Key Quotes
“January trade data disappointed relative to market expectations. However, taken together with recent months’ data momentum remains robust and the moderate uptrend in orders as well as the significant sentiment improvement suggest that exports should grind gradually higher.”
“Exports fell 2.1% mom in January (Reuters: -1.5%; prev. +2.8%). That leaves exports still up 1% over the last three months compared to the three months before (robust momentum).”
“Compared to January 2014 exports were down 0.6% yoy. However, that comes after a 10% yoy-growth rate in December and was largely due to a working day effect. In seasonally adjusted terms, export growth average between 4-5% yoy (3MMA) since July last year – no comparison to pre-crisis rates but solid.”
“Imports were also on the weak side of expectations (-0.3% mom vs. +0.5% expected and -0.7% in December).”
“As a result of the relatively larger decline in exports, the trade balance surplus fell to EUR 19.7bn, down from EUR 21.6bn in December.”
Key Quotes
“January trade data disappointed relative to market expectations. However, taken together with recent months’ data momentum remains robust and the moderate uptrend in orders as well as the significant sentiment improvement suggest that exports should grind gradually higher.”
“Exports fell 2.1% mom in January (Reuters: -1.5%; prev. +2.8%). That leaves exports still up 1% over the last three months compared to the three months before (robust momentum).”
“Compared to January 2014 exports were down 0.6% yoy. However, that comes after a 10% yoy-growth rate in December and was largely due to a working day effect. In seasonally adjusted terms, export growth average between 4-5% yoy (3MMA) since July last year – no comparison to pre-crisis rates but solid.”
“Imports were also on the weak side of expectations (-0.3% mom vs. +0.5% expected and -0.7% in December).”
“As a result of the relatively larger decline in exports, the trade balance surplus fell to EUR 19.7bn, down from EUR 21.6bn in December.”