23 Feb 2015
NZD/USD upside potential towards 0.7600-0.7720 region – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Imre Speizer of Westpac, gives the weekly and medium term outlook for Kiwi versus the Dollar, expecting the NZD/USD rally to continue further towards 0.7600-0.7720 area.
Key Quotes
“The rally since 3 Feb slowed last week but probably has further to run. We target the 0.7600-0.7720 area.”
“The US dollar has stalled, allowing NZ factors to dominate. These have been NZD-supportive, and include the recent sharp rebound in whole milk powder prices (it has retraced 35% of the total loss from the record high in 2013). The NZ economic data pulse (a short term proxy for economic momentum) has risen since November. In addition, futures speculators are currently very short the NZD.”
“The main risk to NZD/USD this week will be the Federal Reserve Chair’s semi-annual testimony on monetray policy (Tue). Any signal implying a mid-year hike will boost the US dollar and thus hurt NZD/USD.”
“From NZ, only a large surprise from the RBNZ’s inflation expectations survey (Tue) will move the NZD.”
“Over the medium term, there remains potential for NZD/USD to fall further. The next major target is 0.7120, but as long as the US dollar’s uptrend remains intact, even lower is possible.”
Key Quotes
“The rally since 3 Feb slowed last week but probably has further to run. We target the 0.7600-0.7720 area.”
“The US dollar has stalled, allowing NZ factors to dominate. These have been NZD-supportive, and include the recent sharp rebound in whole milk powder prices (it has retraced 35% of the total loss from the record high in 2013). The NZ economic data pulse (a short term proxy for economic momentum) has risen since November. In addition, futures speculators are currently very short the NZD.”
“The main risk to NZD/USD this week will be the Federal Reserve Chair’s semi-annual testimony on monetray policy (Tue). Any signal implying a mid-year hike will boost the US dollar and thus hurt NZD/USD.”
“From NZ, only a large surprise from the RBNZ’s inflation expectations survey (Tue) will move the NZD.”
“Over the medium term, there remains potential for NZD/USD to fall further. The next major target is 0.7120, but as long as the US dollar’s uptrend remains intact, even lower is possible.”