23 Feb 2015
EUR/USD: Bear trend exhaustion projected at 1.0072 - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - The odds for EUR/USD remain in favor of a trend extension into 1.0072, with a bounce into 1.1660/80 near term not excluded yet, notes Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategist at JP Morgan.
Key Quotes
"Having basically been treading water for the last 4 weeks EUR/USDworked off most of the oversold readings without even scratching the broader downtrend. That said and having not even come close to the first decisive resistance cluster at 1.1660/72/79 (minor 38.2 % on 2 scales/pivot), the main question currently is whether the internal 4th wave high could be in place at 1.1534."
"In order to answer this question the market would have to break below key-supports at 1.1281 (hourly neckline) and at 1.1224/01 (pivot/minor 76.4 %). Above the latter, another attempt to reach out for 1.1660/72/79 can’t be excluded, which would be indicated via a decisive hourly close above 1.1472 (minor 76.4 %, i.e. above 1.1490). In the big picture though, it takes a breakout of the outer range between 1.1679 and 1.1091 (C = A) to indicate the next big move."
"Above 1.1679 we'd see the door open for a broader recovery to 1.2042/92 (pivot/int. 38.2 % on higher scale), whereas a break below 1.1091 would only leave minor support at 1.0765 and 1.0503 (pivots) in the way before the main bear market targets at 1.0072 (76.4 %) and at 0.9298 (wave 3 projection) would come into focus."
Key Quotes
"Having basically been treading water for the last 4 weeks EUR/USDworked off most of the oversold readings without even scratching the broader downtrend. That said and having not even come close to the first decisive resistance cluster at 1.1660/72/79 (minor 38.2 % on 2 scales/pivot), the main question currently is whether the internal 4th wave high could be in place at 1.1534."
"In order to answer this question the market would have to break below key-supports at 1.1281 (hourly neckline) and at 1.1224/01 (pivot/minor 76.4 %). Above the latter, another attempt to reach out for 1.1660/72/79 can’t be excluded, which would be indicated via a decisive hourly close above 1.1472 (minor 76.4 %, i.e. above 1.1490). In the big picture though, it takes a breakout of the outer range between 1.1679 and 1.1091 (C = A) to indicate the next big move."
"Above 1.1679 we'd see the door open for a broader recovery to 1.2042/92 (pivot/int. 38.2 % on higher scale), whereas a break below 1.1091 would only leave minor support at 1.0765 and 1.0503 (pivots) in the way before the main bear market targets at 1.0072 (76.4 %) and at 0.9298 (wave 3 projection) would come into focus."