20 Feb 2015
EUR/USD move above 1.1534 difficult even on a Greek extension – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to KBC Bank, a sustained break above 1.534/1.1679 levels might be difficult for EUR/USD even on a positive end to Eurogroup-Greece discussions, further adding that a sell-on-upticks approach for the longer term is still preferred for the pair, although not at the current stage.
Key Quotes
“From a technical point of view, the 1.1534 (ST reaction high)/1.1679 (reaction top) remains our first topside reference. We still expect that a sustained break will be difficult even in case of an agreement on Greece.”
“On the downside, important support levels come in at 1.1262/24 and 1.1098 (correction low). For these levels to be broken short-term, an outright Greek crisis or a substantial rise in US bond yields is needed. The first condition became more likely early this week, but the probability is declining. For now it also didn’t hurt the euro.”
“Recently, US data show a loss of momentum and were not strong enough to initiate a new upleg of the dollar. The Fed minutes were soft but the correction in US bond yields and in the dollar were very limited.”
“We maintain a EUR/USD sell-on-upticks approach longer term, but are in no hurry to jump in at the current levels”
Key Quotes
“From a technical point of view, the 1.1534 (ST reaction high)/1.1679 (reaction top) remains our first topside reference. We still expect that a sustained break will be difficult even in case of an agreement on Greece.”
“On the downside, important support levels come in at 1.1262/24 and 1.1098 (correction low). For these levels to be broken short-term, an outright Greek crisis or a substantial rise in US bond yields is needed. The first condition became more likely early this week, but the probability is declining. For now it also didn’t hurt the euro.”
“Recently, US data show a loss of momentum and were not strong enough to initiate a new upleg of the dollar. The Fed minutes were soft but the correction in US bond yields and in the dollar were very limited.”
“We maintain a EUR/USD sell-on-upticks approach longer term, but are in no hurry to jump in at the current levels”