27 Jan 2015
Key events on Tuesday - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key data to be released on Tuesday, highlighting Aus NAB business confidence, UK preliminary GDP read and US housing data.
Key Quotes
"At 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK we see the NAB survey of Australian business confidence. It is listed as Dec but the survey was actually conducted in the second week of Jan. The conditions index was +5.4 in Nov, down sharply from Oct but still within a broad up trend since mid-2013. The confidence index was +1.2 in Nov, extending a down trend that started in Aug. AUD response is likely to be skewed to the downside e.g. a negative handle on one of the indices just a week ahead of the RBA decision."
"There are numerous Asian data releases but with little prospect of influencing FX, including trade data in the Philippines, Thailand and Hong Kong."
"The market is forecasting UK Q4 advance GDP will print at 0.6% (2.8% y/y). We have revised our forecast up to 0.7% from 0.6%, given the strong retail sales report on Friday, and relatedly, larger negative price deflators which increase the risk of a faster real GDP growth rate as well."
"A busy calendar in the US, though data will be overshadowed by the FOMC meeting this week. We will see the release of Nov house prices, Dec new home sales, Jan consumer confidence, Dec durable goods orders, Jan Richmond Fed factory index and Jan services PMI. The NE states will be focused on a potentially damaging snow storm that at the very least will cause days of travel delays."
Key Quotes
"At 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK we see the NAB survey of Australian business confidence. It is listed as Dec but the survey was actually conducted in the second week of Jan. The conditions index was +5.4 in Nov, down sharply from Oct but still within a broad up trend since mid-2013. The confidence index was +1.2 in Nov, extending a down trend that started in Aug. AUD response is likely to be skewed to the downside e.g. a negative handle on one of the indices just a week ahead of the RBA decision."
"There are numerous Asian data releases but with little prospect of influencing FX, including trade data in the Philippines, Thailand and Hong Kong."
"The market is forecasting UK Q4 advance GDP will print at 0.6% (2.8% y/y). We have revised our forecast up to 0.7% from 0.6%, given the strong retail sales report on Friday, and relatedly, larger negative price deflators which increase the risk of a faster real GDP growth rate as well."
"A busy calendar in the US, though data will be overshadowed by the FOMC meeting this week. We will see the release of Nov house prices, Dec new home sales, Jan consumer confidence, Dec durable goods orders, Jan Richmond Fed factory index and Jan services PMI. The NE states will be focused on a potentially damaging snow storm that at the very least will cause days of travel delays."