20 Jan 2015
Key up and coming events - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank highlighted the up and coming key events for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
"Today it is China again - from the data angle. In one lump we get fixed asset investment YTD (seen edging lower to 15.7% YoY); retail sales YTD (seen steady at 12.0% YoY, underlining that consumption growth is steady and high – so the much-talked about rebalancing of the economy is taking place; it just isn’t commensurate with rapid GDP growth); industrial production (expected to dip from 7.4% to 7.2%, the lowest since August last year); and then we get the big draw – Q4 GDP."
"The consensus for Q4 growth is 1.7% QoQ (down from 1.9% in Q3), and 7.2% YoY. In YTD terms that would be 7.3%, the slowest seen since Q1 2009. To be honest - and these may be famous last words - there doesn’t appear much room for a surprise given the data are not very detailed, and are widely regarded as being “Man made” (to quote Li Ke Qiang)."
"Nonetheless, the underlying message is almost certain to be that China is still slowing. That is why the government is now talking about an even larger infrastructure spending stimulus package (USD1.1 trillion it seems); why interest rates are more likely to fall than rise in 2015; and why we still see CNY weakening ahead."
"In Germany we get the ZEW survey, seen more upbeat by market analysts. And indeed, why wouldn’t it rise? The survey respondents are expecting ECB QE this week, which should be good for the financial markets, if not the actual economy - unless it pushes down EUR significantly."
"Sadly, given rising political tensions in Europe itself, and on the FX front too (Fx wars, etc.), does an upbeat ZEW represent the fusion of the ‘house of cards’ and the ‘House of Bourbon’ metaphors?"
Key Quotes:
"Today it is China again - from the data angle. In one lump we get fixed asset investment YTD (seen edging lower to 15.7% YoY); retail sales YTD (seen steady at 12.0% YoY, underlining that consumption growth is steady and high – so the much-talked about rebalancing of the economy is taking place; it just isn’t commensurate with rapid GDP growth); industrial production (expected to dip from 7.4% to 7.2%, the lowest since August last year); and then we get the big draw – Q4 GDP."
"The consensus for Q4 growth is 1.7% QoQ (down from 1.9% in Q3), and 7.2% YoY. In YTD terms that would be 7.3%, the slowest seen since Q1 2009. To be honest - and these may be famous last words - there doesn’t appear much room for a surprise given the data are not very detailed, and are widely regarded as being “Man made” (to quote Li Ke Qiang)."
"Nonetheless, the underlying message is almost certain to be that China is still slowing. That is why the government is now talking about an even larger infrastructure spending stimulus package (USD1.1 trillion it seems); why interest rates are more likely to fall than rise in 2015; and why we still see CNY weakening ahead."
"In Germany we get the ZEW survey, seen more upbeat by market analysts. And indeed, why wouldn’t it rise? The survey respondents are expecting ECB QE this week, which should be good for the financial markets, if not the actual economy - unless it pushes down EUR significantly."
"Sadly, given rising political tensions in Europe itself, and on the FX front too (Fx wars, etc.), does an upbeat ZEW represent the fusion of the ‘house of cards’ and the ‘House of Bourbon’ metaphors?"