16 Jan 2015
Russian MoE assess economic performance at oil price of $40/bbl - DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Research Team shares that Russian Ministry of Economy is preparing the economic forecasts for a scenario where oil prices remain at a level of USD40-60/bbl, anticipating Russian GDP decline of 3%yoy in 2015, and RUB/USD at 50 by year-end.
Key Quotes
“Russian Ministry of Economy to assess economic performance at oil price of USD40/bbl: Interfax yesterday cited Deputy Economy Minister Alexey Vedev as saying that the ministry is preparing the economic forecasts for a scenario where oil prices remain at a level of USD40-60/bbl. The deputy minister said that accounting for first round effects only, GDP would decline by 3-5% yoy, while the ruble exchange rate would fluctuate in the range of RUB/USD760-70/bbl.”
“Talking about the short-term perspective, Vedev said that the ministry is anticipating an economic contraction of 1% yoy in 1Q15. Although he did not provide any specific details, he said that the weakness could come from lower investments and consumption.”
“Inflation could reach a peak of 15-17% yoy in March-April and then decline to c.10% yoy by the end of the year.”
“In end-December, Economy Minister Alexey Ulyukae had said that the ministry plans to take USD60/bbl as a base case scenario, which will lead to a decline of 3% yoy in 2015 and an exchange rate of RUB/USD50 in 2015. (Y. Lissovolik).”
Key Quotes
“Russian Ministry of Economy to assess economic performance at oil price of USD40/bbl: Interfax yesterday cited Deputy Economy Minister Alexey Vedev as saying that the ministry is preparing the economic forecasts for a scenario where oil prices remain at a level of USD40-60/bbl. The deputy minister said that accounting for first round effects only, GDP would decline by 3-5% yoy, while the ruble exchange rate would fluctuate in the range of RUB/USD760-70/bbl.”
“Talking about the short-term perspective, Vedev said that the ministry is anticipating an economic contraction of 1% yoy in 1Q15. Although he did not provide any specific details, he said that the weakness could come from lower investments and consumption.”
“Inflation could reach a peak of 15-17% yoy in March-April and then decline to c.10% yoy by the end of the year.”
“In end-December, Economy Minister Alexey Ulyukae had said that the ministry plans to take USD60/bbl as a base case scenario, which will lead to a decline of 3% yoy in 2015 and an exchange rate of RUB/USD50 in 2015. (Y. Lissovolik).”