9 Jan 2015
Downside risk to Canada’s employment change number – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team notes that Canada’s hiring might have been pared back with the sharp decline in oil prices, and hence sees a downside risk to the 15k expectations in employment change number.
Key Quotes
“We see a downside risk to the consensus expectation of a soft 15k gain in December. Hiring intentions have been pared back as employers are a little more cautious given the sharp decline in oil prices. In light of this, we could see a soft pace of hiring early in the new year.”
“The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.6%. Shortly before the employment release, we will receive the housing starts report for December. Here we are also below the market in looking for a deceleration in the pace of construction activity to 188k (market: 192k, prior 195k).”
Key Quotes
“We see a downside risk to the consensus expectation of a soft 15k gain in December. Hiring intentions have been pared back as employers are a little more cautious given the sharp decline in oil prices. In light of this, we could see a soft pace of hiring early in the new year.”
“The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.6%. Shortly before the employment release, we will receive the housing starts report for December. Here we are also below the market in looking for a deceleration in the pace of construction activity to 188k (market: 192k, prior 195k).”