22 Dec 2014
S&P raises US GDP forecast to 3.1% in 2015; Fed rates to close 2015 at 1.25%
FXStreet (San Francisco) - Standard & Poor's revised upwards its "2015 real GDP forecast up to 3.1% from 3.0%, as the drop in oil prices may help boost consumer spending," as reported in a to press release published today by the agency.
S&P "also bumps the GDP growth forecast for November to 2.3% from 2.2% as consumer spending continues to strengthen into next year and residential construction moves back into double-digit gains."
The agency affirms that "for every $10 drop in the price of a barrel of oil, consumers' purchasing power could increase by 0.4%. If that holds through 2015, it would increase GDP for the year by 20 basis points."
S&P expects the first Fed hike to be placed in June 2015, the Fed rate would close 2015 at 1.25%.
Key quotes:
"The drop in oil prices, if it continues as we expect, will help support economic growth into 2015," Standard & Poor's U.S. Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino said in the report.
"Furthermore, with economic activity continuing to strengthen, the Federal Reserve will likely move ahead in normalizing monetary policy next year, raising its policy rate in June, the first time in nearly a decade."
"We expect the drop in oil prices to weigh on energy-related activity next year, likely stalling new projects and job creation for energy-related activity," Ms. Bovino said. "However, the overall boost from this reverse shock will still likely be a net gain to economic activity for 2015. Indeed, we may already be reaping the rewards this year."
S&P "also bumps the GDP growth forecast for November to 2.3% from 2.2% as consumer spending continues to strengthen into next year and residential construction moves back into double-digit gains."
The agency affirms that "for every $10 drop in the price of a barrel of oil, consumers' purchasing power could increase by 0.4%. If that holds through 2015, it would increase GDP for the year by 20 basis points."
S&P expects the first Fed hike to be placed in June 2015, the Fed rate would close 2015 at 1.25%.
Key quotes:
"The drop in oil prices, if it continues as we expect, will help support economic growth into 2015," Standard & Poor's U.S. Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino said in the report.
"Furthermore, with economic activity continuing to strengthen, the Federal Reserve will likely move ahead in normalizing monetary policy next year, raising its policy rate in June, the first time in nearly a decade."
"We expect the drop in oil prices to weigh on energy-related activity next year, likely stalling new projects and job creation for energy-related activity," Ms. Bovino said. "However, the overall boost from this reverse shock will still likely be a net gain to economic activity for 2015. Indeed, we may already be reaping the rewards this year."