Crude oil prices trending down – NAB Group

Having trended higher across June, crude oil prices peaked in early July (at around US$88/barrel for benchmark Brent crude) before trending down across the rest of the month, NAB commodity analysts note.

Supply side fears produce volatility

“In line with subdued global economic conditions, the International Energy Agency noted that oil consumption grew comparatively modestly in Q2 2024 – up by around 710kb/d from Q1 – with Chinese consumption falling year-on-year during this period.”

“Growth in supply outpaced consumption – increasing by 910kb/d – led by higher production in the United States and coming despite ongoing restrictions on supply from OPEC+. Recent volatility in crude prices largely reflects supply side fears, such as concerns of an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East negatively impacting output in the region.”

“Our forecasts are unchanged this month, with Brent crude expected to average US$85/barrel in 2024 and US$84/barrel in 2025.”