EUR/USD: More than an initial reaction to US CPI is unlikely – Commerzbank

Prior to the highly anticipated ECB rate decision on Thursday, focus today will again be on the US, as the August inflation data is due for publication. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how could EUR/USD react to the US CPI report.

US inflation overshadowed by ECB meeting

Contrary to the situation regarding the ECB, the market seems to be more or less unanimous in the expectation of the key rate remaining unchanged in the US next week. The inflation publication today is unlikely to have much of an effect on the decision itself, but probably on the outlook the Fed will provide for the coming months. Will the Fed signal an end of the rate hike cycle or will it again refer to the decision as a pause in the cycle?

As a result, today’s publication is not irrelevant, but against the background of the ECB meeting, the reaction in EUR/USD is likely to be cautious. More than an initial reaction is unlikely, in particular as the Fed meeting is also getting closer, resulting in a certain event risk at least as far as the future outlook is concerned.

See – US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, strong headline with rising energy prices