EUR/GBP can later this year move back to the 0.87 area – ING

EUR/GBP briefly dipped under 0.8500 on the soft eurozone PMI releases only to surge to 0.8565 on the soft UK services PMI release. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Short-term rates remain the key driver

The soft UK data took a large 15 bps out of pricing for the Bank of England (BoE) tightening cycle. We still think that the BoE will not deliver on the 60 bps of tightening still priced by the markets and that EUR/GBP can later this year move back to the 0.87 area.

The only UK data of note today is the August CBI Retail Sales numbers and we suspect EUR/GBP continues to trade a 0.8500-0.8550 range, while Cable is quite steady near 1.2700 too.