USD/INR Price Analysis: Flirts with 83.00 resistance breakpoint, bullish potential intact

• USD/INR is seen consolidating in a narrow trading band above the 83.00 mark on Tuesday.
• The fundamental and technical setup supports prospects for a further appreciating move.
• Any meaningful corrective slide might be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.

The USD/INR pair edges lower during the Asian session Tuesday and currently trades near the daily low, around the 83.00 mark, down less than 0.10% for the day. Spot prices, meanwhile, remain well within the striking distance of the all-time high touched last Tuesday and seem poised to prolong the recent upward trajectory witnessed over the past three weeks or so.

The US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive for the second successive day and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/INR pair. That said, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer helps the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to hold above a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This, along with a generally weaker risk tone, should limit any meaningful corrective decline for the safe-haven buck, from its highest level since July 12, and lend support to the pair ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week.

Even from a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 83.00 strong barrier, which has been capping the upside for the USD/INR pair since November 2022, favours bullish traders. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, any further slide is likely to attract fresh buyers near the 82.80-82.75 area. This is followed by the 82.60-82.55 support, which should now act as a strong base. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for some meaningful downfall.

Bulls, meanwhile, might now wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 83.40 area, or the record high before positioning for a further near-term appreciating move towards the 84.00 round-figure mark.

USD/INR daily chart

Technical levels to watch