Yen selling window to close – MUFG

The Yen weakened sharply in June. Economists at MUFG Bank discuss JPY outlook.

Yen looks over-extended to the downside

Japan's equity market outperformance, positive inflation in land and property prices, high and sustained household inflation expectations, and underlying inflation at a level not seen since 1981 leave every BoJ meeting as live for a surprise policy change. 

The Yen to us looks over-extended to the downside and we see a BoJ shift in YCC and a Fed pause by September helping fuel a sustained turnaround.

USD/JPY – Q3 2023 136.00 Q4 2023 134.00 Q1 2024 132.00 Q2 2024 130.00 

EUR/JPY – Q3 2023 149.60 Q4 2023 150.10 Q1 2024 149.20 Q2 2024 143.00