NFP: Payroll gains to have stayed largely unchanged – TDS

On Friday, the US will release the official employment report for the month of January. Analysts at TD Securities expect a 220K increase in payroll and a modest increase in the unemployment rate to 3.6%.

A still resilient labor market

“We project payroll gains to have stayed largely unchanged vs December, posting a still solid 220k increase in January. Both the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings should have remained steady: the former at a decades-low 3.5%, and the latter printing a 0.3% m/m gain. Note that the January jobs report will also include important revisions to the establishment survey data for 2022.”

“Following Powell's flip in script, the market is asymmetric around this number. That is, a positive surprise is not likely to materially derail risk sentiment, while an indication of softness will reinforce it. That's key for the USD and other FX baskets which have more closely aligned itself to equity dynamics. That could prevent the USD from sinking to new lows in the near-term. Ultimately however, we expect to see dip buying interest in EURUSD towards 1.08.”