USD/MXN Price Analysis: A rebound after the collapse to 19.50, on volatile times

• Key events ahead: FOMC statement in a few hours, Banxico decision on Thursday.
• USD/MXN makes sharp moves, and holds bullish bias.
• Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the currency market.

The USD/MXN is rising significantly on Wednesday before the Federal Reserve announces its decision on monetary policy. On Tuesday, the pair suffered the biggest daily decline in months. Volatility jumped after US Consumer Price Index data and is set to remain elevated ahead of the FOMC. The Bank of Mexico will announce its decision on Thursday.

Recently the USD/MXN peaked at 19.91, near the 100-day Simple Moving Average. It failed to hold above 19.85 and then also pulled back under 19.80. The correction extended on Wednesday’s Asian session to 19.50 and it was followed by a rebound.

As of writing, USD/MXN is moving to the upside, trading around 19.70. Still, no clear signs emerge from the chart. The pair could consolidate between 19.85 and the 19.50 support area, reinforced by the 20-day SMA.

Technical indicators continue to favor the upside with RSI moving north without much conviction; Momentum held above the midline. A consolidation below 19.50 would change the outlook to neutral/bearish. On the upside, above 19.80, USD/MXN could rise further to test the 100-day SMA, exposing 20.00. A return above would put the pair back in the 19.80/20.20 range.

USDMXN daily chart